Calculated
DCF
Free cash flow, growth, discount rate, and terminal growth form an intrinsic value range.
422.43 USD731.01 USD987.18 USD
731.01 USDThis model is a limited scenario reference for this sector.
M
Financial ServicesCredit ServicesUnited States
Mastercard Incorporated (MA) Valuation Assumptions
Review Mastercard Incorporated (MA) valuation assumptions across intrinsic value, DCF, reverse DCF implied growth, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, and financial trends.
NYQ · US · USD
Latest price495.46 USD
30D-4.25%
Price vs model medianLimited model referenceModel median is the median base output from applicable absolute models, excluding Reverse DCF.
Quick answer
What growth is the market currently pricing into MA?
At 495.46 USD, TickerVal's reverse DCF setup implies roughly 10.9% annual FCF growth for 10 years for MA, using the current normalized FCF base, a 9% discount rate, and 3.0% terminal growth. The rest of the page shows valuation assumptions, model differences, and source-data context for research reference.
What price implies
What does the current price imply?
At 495.46 USD, the model implies roughly 10.88% annual FCF growth for 10 years, with required long-term operating margin near 52.55% and terminal growth around 3%. This module is a research reference.
Implied FCF CAGR10.88%
10-year Reverse DCF scenario
Required long-term operating margin52.55%
Five-year median × 0.95
Implied terminal growth3%
From current model assumptions
Discount rate assumption9%
Estimated from current sector rules
Adjust assumptions+
Adjust assumptions
Move assumptions to see how the current price implied conditions change.
Forecast horizon10Y
Historical implied expectations
How does today's implied growth compare with history?
Calculated from selected historical prices and current normalized FCF assumptions, not a full point-in-time backtest.
Current implied FCF CAGR10.9%
5Y monthly median8.34%
Current vs 5Y median+2.56 pts
Showing 8 of 13 report price anchors
| Report price anchor | Price date | Anchor price | Implied FCF CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1-2026 | 2026/03/31 | 498.80 USD | 10.97% |
| FY2025 | 2025/12/31 | 569.05 USD | 12.7% |
| Q1-2026 | 2025/12/31 | 569.05 USD | 12.7% |
| Q3-2025 | 2025/09/30 | 566.23 USD | 12.63% |
| Q2-2025 | 2025/06/30 | 558.64 USD | 12.46% |
| Q1-2026 | 2025/03/31 | 544.04 USD | 12.11% |
| FY2024 | 2024/12/31 | 521.88 USD | 11.57% |
| Q3-2025 | 2024/12/31 | 521.88 USD | 11.57% |
202611.08%
Avg 11.26% · Samples 5
202512.52%
Avg 12.53% · Samples 12
202410.25%
Avg 10.27% · Samples 12
20237.41%
Avg 7.42% · Samples 12
Historical valuation multiples
How have EV/EBITDA and P/FCF changed over the last 5 years?
Annual fiscal-period anchored: month-end prices are paired with the most recent annual fiscal period ending on or before each date, covering the last 5 years (61 monthly samples). Multiples are research references; financial-sector or otherwise non-comparable companies require sector-specific context.
P/E
Market cap divided by reported net income (annual fiscal-period snapshot).
29.99x
Below history · P1
Current5Y medianTypical range IQR
5Y median39.61x
Current29.99x · P1
5Y low 29.99xCurrent vs median-24.28%5Y high 58.92x
IQR 36.69–40.77x · 61 monthly samples
P/FCF
Market cap divided by reported free cash flow.
26.16x
Below history · P1
Current5Y medianTypical range IQR
5Y median36.53x
Current26.16x · P1
5Y low 26.16xCurrent vs median-28.39%5Y high 54.86x
IQR 34.73–38.39x · 61 monthly samples
Month-end historical multiples
A date-friendly view for historical EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, and P/E queries.
Showing 8 of 61 month-end samples
| Month-end | Price | P/E | P/FCF | EV/EBITDA | Fiscal period used |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 495.46 USD | 29.99x | 26.16x | - | 2025-12-31 |
| 2026-04-30 | 502.92 USD | 30.44x | 26.56x | - | 2025-12-31 |
| 2026-03-31 | 498.80 USD | 30.19x | 26.34x | - | 2025-12-31 |
| 2026-02-27 | 516.32 USD | 31.25x | 27.26x | - | 2025-12-31 |
| 2026-01-30 | 537.87 USD | 32.56x | 28.4x | - | 2025-12-31 |
| 2025-12-31 | 569.05 USD | 34.45x | 30.05x | - | 2025-12-31 |
| 2025-11-28 | 548.76 USD | 39.51x | 35.55x | - | 2024-12-31 |
| 2025-10-31 | 550.22 USD | 39.61x | 35.65x | - | 2024-12-31 |
Valuation overview
How do the valuation assumptions fit together?
Mastercard Incorporated (MA) valuation on TickerVal is designed to help readers understand the operating expectations embedded in the current market price. At 495.46 USD, the page brings intrinsic value analysis, DCF outputs, reverse DCF implied growth, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, and valuation assumptions into one research view within the Financial Services sector and the Credit Services industry. Instead of treating one model as a final answer, TickerVal compares cash-flow, earnings-power, balance-sheet, and relative-multiple lenses so the differences between models are visible. The reverse DCF view currently shows implied growth of 10.9%, while the model median reference sits at a limited composite reference versus the current price. The DCF and reverse DCF sections focus on free cash flow, discount rate, terminal growth, and the long-term growth path implied by the current price. EV/EBITDA and P/FCF provide additional context for capital structure and cash-flow multiples. The financial trends section connects those valuation assumptions back to reported revenue of 33B USD, free cash flow of 17B USD, margins, and balance-sheet facts from public filings. Readers can use the layout to compare assumptions across models before reviewing the underlying source data. This page is intended for transparent research reference, model review, and assumption checking.
Valuation model range vs. current price
Each row shows a model output range, with a vertical line for the current price.
DCFCalculated · Limited reference
422.43 USD-987.18 USD
Graham NumberCalculated · Limited reference
56.34 USD-56.34 USD
Current price reference line
Why do valuation models give different answers?
Different models rely on different financial facts. The status blocks show which lenses fit this page data.
| Model | Fit | Context |
|---|---|---|
| DCF | Limited | For financial companies, cash-flow models are a limited research reference; balance-sheet lenses carry more context. |
| Owner Earnings | Not meaningful | Owner-earnings proxies are not meaningful for financial balance-sheet businesses. |
| Reverse DCF | Limited | Reverse DCF is a limited scenario lens for financial companies. |
| Earnings Power Value | Not meaningful | Earnings power value depends on operating profit, which is not the main lens for this sector. |
| Graham Number | Limited | Works best when EPS and book value are both positive. |
| Dividend Discount Model | Not meaningful | Needs explicit dividend history, which is not included in the current version. |
| Net-Net Liquidation Value | Not meaningful | Requires current asset and liability detail beyond the current data set. |
| PEG | Limited | A quick growth multiple lens when EPS history is positive. |
| EV/EBITDA | Not meaningful | EV/EBITDA is not meaningful for financial balance-sheet businesses. |
| P/FCF | Limited | P/FCF is a limited research reference for financial companies. |
| P/B | Suitable | A balance-sheet lens is more relevant for financial companies. |
| P/S | Limited | A revenue multiple lens when profit or FCF is not stable. |
| Peer Comparison | Not meaningful | Standardized peer comparisons are not included in the current version. |
Which valuation models are being calculated?
Hover each model row to inspect formulas and inputs.
Current price495.46 USD
Model median referenceLimited model reference
Price vs model medianLimited model reference
Price date2026/05/01
The aggregated models are mostly limited-reference views, so the composite range bar is not shown.
Excluded
Owner Earnings
Uses net income, D&A, and capex as an owner-earnings proxy.
---
-Owner earnings samples are insufficient.
Calculated
Reverse DCF
Solves the forward FCF growth rate implied by the current price.
Implied growth10.9%
Current price implies roughly 10.9% annualized FCF growth.
10.9%Current price implies roughly 10.9% annualized FCF growth.
Calculated
Earnings Power Value
Estimates earnings power value without assuming growth.
167.41 USD167.41 USD167.41 USD
167.41 USDCurrent price is 195.9% above the base model value.
Updated: 2026/05/03
Which financial trends support the assumptions?
Annual financial metrics with switchable views. · Unit: USD
FY2025 · Dec 2025 report14 records
Revenue33B USD
Net income15B USD
Free cash flow17B USD
CapEx489M USD
Operating cash flow18B USD
Valuation basis and non-recurring items
Collapsed by default. Expand to inspect structured one-time items and adjusted figures without making them the primary page focus.
ExpandCollapse
Valuation basis and non-recurring items
Collapsed by default. Expand to inspect structured one-time items and adjusted figures without making them the primary page focus.
A positive amountAfterTax means the item increased reported net income; a negative value means it reduced reported net income. Adjusted net income = reported net income minus total after-tax impact. Valuation defaults to reported figures; adjusted figures are shown to observe one-time-item impact.
| Period | Item | Category | After-tax impact | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/12/31 | Litigation settlement | Litigation | -1B USD | Medium |
| 2024/12/31 | Litigation settlement | Litigation | -281M USD | Medium |
| 2023/12/31 | Litigation settlement | Litigation | -74M USD | Medium |
| 2022/12/31 | Litigation settlement | Litigation | -58M USD | Medium |
| 2020/12/31 | Litigation settlement | Litigation | -891M USD | Medium |
| 2025/09/30 | Litigation settlement | Litigation | -326M USD | Medium |
| 2025/06/30 | Litigation settlement | Litigation | -271M USD | Medium |
| 2025/03/31 | Litigation settlement | Litigation | -119M USD | Medium |
| 2024/09/30 | Litigation settlement | Litigation | -455M USD | Medium |
| 2024/06/30 | Litigation settlement | Litigation | -254M USD | Medium |
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Which reported financials feed the models?
Financial DetailsShowing latest 5 / 14
| Period | Type | Revenue | Net Income | Adjusted net income | Free Cash Flow | Diluted EPS | Adjusted EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/12/31 | Annual | 33B USD | 15B USD | 16B USD | 17B USD | 16.52 | 18.02 |
| 2024/12/31 | Annual | 28B USD | 13B USD | 13B USD | 14B USD | 13.89 | 14.19 |
| 2023/12/31 | Annual | 25B USD | 11B USD | 11B USD | 12B USD | 11.83 | 11.91 |
| 2022/12/31 | Annual | 22B USD | 10B USD | 10B USD | 11B USD | 10.22 | 10.28 |
| 2021/12/31 | Annual | 19B USD | 9B USD | - | 9B USD | 8.76 | - |
Where does this data come from?
Open to inspect field-level SEC EDGAR source, filing form, and derived notes.
SEC EDGAR
Where does this data come from?
Open to inspect field-level SEC EDGAR source, filing form, and derived notes.
Frequently asked questions
Quick notes on price-implied expectations, model differences, and source data.
What is Mastercard Incorporated's intrinsic value?
Mastercard Incorporated's intrinsic value on TickerVal is reviewed through DCF outputs, reverse DCF implied growth, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, valuation assumptions, and financial trends from public filings.
How is MA valued on TickerVal?
TickerVal values MA by comparing intrinsic value models, DCF and reverse DCF assumptions, cash-flow multiples, earnings-power references, and reported financial trends.
What does the current stock price imply?
The reverse DCF view estimates the free-cash-flow growth path implied by the current stock price under stated discount-rate and terminal-growth assumptions.
Which valuation models are used?
TickerVal uses DCF, reverse DCF, Owner Earnings, EPV, Graham Number, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, P/B, P/S, and other model references where the underlying data is available.
Is this investment advice?
No. TickerVal does not provide investment advice, ratings, price targets, or buy/sell recommendations.
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