Excluded
DCF
Free cash flow, growth, discount rate, and terminal growth form an intrinsic value range.
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-Positive free-cash-flow history is shorter than two years.
M
Basic MaterialsOther Industrial Metals & MiningUnited States
MP Materials Corp. (MP) Valuation Assumptions
Review MP Materials Corp. (MP) valuation assumptions across intrinsic value, DCF, reverse DCF implied growth, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, and financial trends.
NYQ · US · USD
Latest price67.43 USD
30D+14.54%
Price vs model medianLimited model referenceModel median is the median base output from applicable absolute models, excluding Reverse DCF.
Quick answer
What growth is the market currently pricing into MP?
At 67.43 USD, TickerVal's reverse DCF setup implies roughly 40.0% annual FCF growth for 10 years for MP, using the current normalized FCF base, a 9% discount rate, and 3.0% terminal growth. The rest of the page shows valuation assumptions, model differences, and source-data context for research reference.
What price implies
What does the current price imply?
At 67.43 USD, the model implies roughly 40% annual FCF growth for 10 years, with required long-term operating margin near 53.14% and terminal growth around 3%. This module is a research reference.
Implied FCF CAGR40%
10-year Reverse DCF scenario
Required long-term operating margin53.14%
Five-year median × 0.95
Implied terminal growth3%
From current model assumptions
Discount rate assumption9%
Estimated from current sector rules
Adjust assumptions+
Adjust assumptions
Move assumptions to see how the current price implied conditions change.
Forecast horizon10Y
Historical implied expectations
How does today's implied growth compare with history?
Calculated from selected historical prices and current normalized FCF assumptions, not a full point-in-time backtest.
Current implied FCF CAGR40%
5Y monthly median40%
Current vs 5Y median+0 pts
Showing 8 of 13 report price anchors
| Report price anchor | Price date | Anchor price | Implied FCF CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1-2026 | 2026/03/31 | 48.26 USD | 40% |
| FY2025 | 2025/12/31 | 50.52 USD | 40% |
| Q1-2026 | 2025/12/31 | 50.52 USD | 40% |
| Q3-2025 | 2025/09/30 | 67.07 USD | 40% |
| Q2-2025 | 2025/06/30 | 33.27 USD | 40% |
| Q1-2026 | 2025/03/31 | 24.41 USD | 39.13% |
| FY2024 | 2024/12/31 | 15.60 USD | 32.67% |
| Q3-2025 | 2024/12/31 | 15.60 USD | 32.67% |
202640%
Avg 40% · Samples 5
202540%
Avg 39.35% · Samples 12
202432.76%
Avg 32.67% · Samples 12
202337.14%
Avg 37.16% · Samples 12
Historical valuation multiples
How have EV/EBITDA and P/FCF changed over the last 5 years?
Annual fiscal-period anchored: month-end prices are paired with the most recent annual fiscal period ending on or before each date, covering the last 5 years (36 monthly samples). Multiples are research references; financial-sector or otherwise non-comparable companies require sector-specific context.
P/E
Market cap divided by reported net income (annual fiscal-period snapshot).
154x
Above history · P99
Current5Y medianTypical range IQR
5Y median48.19x
Current154x · P99
5Y low 10.62xCurrent vs median+220%5Y high 154x
IQR 18.14–95.68x · 36 monthly samples
P/FCF
Market cap divided by reported free cash flow.
227x
Near median · P29
Current5Y medianTypical range IQR
5Y median244x
Current227x · P29
5Y low 181xCurrent vs median-6.83%5Y high 400x
IQR 225–285x · 12 monthly samples
EV/EBITDA
Enterprise value (market cap + debt − cash) divided by EBITDA.
110x
Above history · P99
Current5Y medianTypical range IQR
5Y median31.64x
Current110x · P99
5Y low 10.45xCurrent vs median+247%5Y high 110x
IQR 16.73–72.24x · 36 monthly samples
Month-end historical multiples
A date-friendly view for historical EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, and P/E queries.
Showing 8 of 36 month-end samples
| Month-end | Price | P/E | P/FCF | EV/EBITDA | Fiscal period used |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-29 | 21.07 USD | 154x | - | 110x | 2023-12-31 |
| 2024-10-31 | 17.99 USD | 132x | - | 95.38x | 2023-12-31 |
| 2024-09-30 | 17.65 USD | 129x | - | 93.79x | 2023-12-31 |
| 2024-08-30 | 12.90 USD | 94.55x | - | 71.51x | 2023-12-31 |
| 2024-07-31 | 13.52 USD | 99.09x | - | 74.42x | 2023-12-31 |
| 2024-06-28 | 12.73 USD | 93.3x | - | 70.72x | 2023-12-31 |
| 2024-05-31 | 16.22 USD | 119x | - | 87.08x | 2023-12-31 |
| 2024-04-30 | 16.00 USD | 117x | - | 86.05x | 2023-12-31 |
Valuation overview
How do the valuation assumptions fit together?
MP Materials Corp. (MP) valuation on TickerVal is designed to help readers understand the operating expectations embedded in the current market price. At 67.43 USD, the page brings intrinsic value analysis, DCF outputs, reverse DCF implied growth, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, and valuation assumptions into one research view within the Basic Materials sector and the Other Industrial Metals & Mining industry. Instead of treating one model as a final answer, TickerVal compares cash-flow, earnings-power, balance-sheet, and relative-multiple lenses so the differences between models are visible. The reverse DCF view currently shows implied growth of 40.0%, while the model median reference sits at a limited composite reference versus the current price. The DCF and reverse DCF sections focus on free cash flow, discount rate, terminal growth, and the long-term growth path implied by the current price. EV/EBITDA and P/FCF provide additional context for capital structure and cash-flow multiples. The financial trends section connects those valuation assumptions back to reported revenue of 224M USD, free cash flow of -328M USD, margins, and balance-sheet facts from public filings. Readers can use the layout to compare assumptions across models before reviewing the underlying source data. This page is intended for transparent research reference, model review, and assumption checking.
Valuation model range vs. current price
Each row shows a model output range, with a vertical line for the current price.
Earnings Power ValueCalculated
13.70 USD-13.70 USD
Owner EarningsCalculated · Limited reference
3.31 USD-3.98 USD
Current price reference line
Why do valuation models give different answers?
Different models rely on different financial facts. The status blocks show which lenses fit this page data.
| Model | Fit | Context |
|---|---|---|
| DCF | Limited | Useful when recurring free cash flow history exists; sensitive to growth and discount assumptions. |
| Owner Earnings | Limited | Useful when net income, D&A, and capex support owner-earnings scenarios. |
| Reverse DCF | Suitable | Shows the FCF growth implied by current price under stated assumptions. |
| Earnings Power Value | Suitable | Useful for mature operating profit, with limited emphasis on growth. |
| Graham Number | Limited | Works best when EPS and book value are both positive. |
| Dividend Discount Model | Not meaningful | Needs explicit dividend history, which is not included in the current version. |
| Net-Net Liquidation Value | Not meaningful | Requires current asset and liability detail beyond the current data set. |
| PEG | Limited | A quick growth multiple lens when EPS history is positive. |
| EV/EBITDA | Limited | Useful for capital structure context when operating profit is available. |
| P/FCF | Limited | A compact free-cash-flow multiple view for positive FCF years. |
| P/B | Limited | More useful for asset-heavy balance sheets than asset-light companies. |
| P/S | Limited | A revenue multiple lens when profit or FCF is not stable. |
| Peer Comparison | Not meaningful | Standardized peer comparisons are not included in the current version. |
Which valuation models are being calculated?
Hover each model row to inspect formulas and inputs.
Current price67.43 USD
Model median referenceLimited model reference
Price vs model medianLimited model reference
Price date2026/05/08
The aggregated models are mostly limited-reference views, so the composite range bar is not shown.
Calculated
Owner Earnings
Uses net income, D&A, and capex as an owner-earnings proxy.
3.31 USD3.73 USD3.98 USD
3.73 USDCurrent price is 1709.5% above the base model value.Adjusted reference: 10.87 USD
Calculated
Reverse DCF
Solves the forward FCF growth rate implied by the current price.
Implied growth40.0%
Current price implies roughly 40.0% annualized FCF growth.
40.0%Current price implies roughly 40.0% annualized FCF growth.
Calculated
Earnings Power Value
Estimates earnings power value without assuming growth.
13.70 USD13.70 USD13.70 USD
+392%
13.70 USDCurrent price is 392.4% above the base model value.
Updated: 2026/05/10
Which financial trends support the assumptions?
Annual financial metrics with switchable views. · Unit: USD
FY2025 · Dec 2025 report14 records
Revenue224M USD
Net income-86M USD
Free cash flow-328M USD
CapEx172M USD
Operating cash flow-156M USD
Valuation basis and non-recurring items
Collapsed by default. Expand to inspect structured one-time items and adjusted figures without making them the primary page focus.
ExpandCollapse
Valuation basis and non-recurring items
Collapsed by default. Expand to inspect structured one-time items and adjusted figures without making them the primary page focus.
A positive amountAfterTax means the item increased reported net income; a negative value means it reduced reported net income. Adjusted net income = reported net income minus total after-tax impact. Valuation defaults to reported figures; adjusted figures are shown to observe one-time-item impact.
| Period | Item | Category | After-tax impact | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/12/31 | Asset sale gain/loss | Asset sale gain/loss | -6M USD | Medium |
| 2024/12/31 | Asset sale gain/loss | Asset sale gain/loss | -309K USD | Medium |
| 2023/12/31 | Asset sale gain/loss | Asset sale gain/loss | -1M USD | Medium |
| 2022/12/31 | Asset sale gain/loss | Asset sale gain/loss | -80K USD | Medium |
| 2025/12/31 | Other special charges | Other | -897K USD | Medium |
| 2025/12/31 | Special income/charges | Other | -897K USD | Medium |
| 2025/09/30 | Asset sale gain/loss | Asset sale gain/loss | 661K USD | Medium |
| 2025/06/30 | Asset sale gain/loss | Asset sale gain/loss | 2M USD | Medium |
| 2025/03/31 | Asset sale gain/loss | Asset sale gain/loss | 487K USD | Medium |
| 2024/12/31 | Other special charges | Other | -4M USD | Medium |
| 2024/12/31 | Special income/charges | Other | 4M USD | Medium |
| 2024/09/30 | Asset sale gain/loss | Asset sale gain/loss | -901K USD | Medium |
| 2024/06/30 | Asset sale gain/loss | Asset sale gain/loss | -359K USD | Medium |
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Which reported financials feed the models?
Financial DetailsShowing latest 5 / 14
| Period | Type | Revenue | Net Income | Adjusted net income | Free Cash Flow | Diluted EPS | Adjusted EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/12/31 | Annual | 224M USD | -86M USD | -79M USD | -328M USD | -0.5 | -0.46 |
| 2024/12/31 | Annual | 204M USD | -65M USD | -65M USD | -173M USD | -0.57 | -0.57 |
| 2023/12/31 | Annual | 253M USD | 24M USD | 25M USD | -199M USD | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| 2022/12/31 | Annual | 528M USD | 289M USD | 289M USD | 17M USD | 1.52 | 1.52 |
| 2021/12/31 | Annual | 332M USD | 135M USD | - | -14M USD | 0.73 | - |
Where does this data come from?
Open to inspect field-level SEC EDGAR source, filing form, and derived notes.
SEC EDGAR
Where does this data come from?
Open to inspect field-level SEC EDGAR source, filing form, and derived notes.
Frequently asked questions
Quick notes on price-implied expectations, model differences, and source data.
What is MP Materials Corp.'s intrinsic value?
MP Materials Corp.'s intrinsic value on TickerVal is reviewed through DCF outputs, reverse DCF implied growth, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, valuation assumptions, and financial trends from public filings.
How is MP valued on TickerVal?
TickerVal values MP by comparing intrinsic value models, DCF and reverse DCF assumptions, cash-flow multiples, earnings-power references, and reported financial trends.
What does the current stock price imply?
The reverse DCF view estimates the free-cash-flow growth path implied by the current stock price under stated discount-rate and terminal-growth assumptions.
Which valuation models are used?
TickerVal uses DCF, reverse DCF, Owner Earnings, EPV, Graham Number, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, P/B, P/S, and other model references where the underlying data is available.
Is this investment advice?
No. TickerVal does not provide investment advice, ratings, price targets, or buy/sell recommendations.
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