Calculated
DCF
Free cash flow, growth, discount rate, and terminal growth form an intrinsic value range.
13.49 USD12.61 USD15.81 USD
+1,011%
12.61 USDCurrent price is 1011% above the base model value.
B
Consumer CyclicalInternet RetailHong Kong
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) Valuation Assumptions
Review Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) valuation assumptions across intrinsic value, DCF, reverse DCF implied growth, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, and financial trends.
NYQ · US · USD
Latest price140.06 USD
30D-2.81%
Price vs model median+1,219%Model median is the median base output from applicable absolute models, excluding Reverse DCF.
Quick answer
What growth is the market currently pricing into BABA?
At 140.06 USD, TickerVal's reverse DCF setup implies roughly 30.1% annual FCF growth for 10 years for BABA, using the current normalized FCF base, a 9% discount rate, and 3.0% terminal growth. The rest of the page shows valuation assumptions, model differences, and source-data context for research reference.
What price implies
What does the current price imply?
At 140.06 USD, the model implies roughly 30.09% annual FCF growth for 10 years, with required long-term operating margin near 11.44% and terminal growth around 3%. This module is a research reference.
Implied FCF CAGR30.09%
10-year Reverse DCF scenario
Required long-term operating margin11.44%
Five-year median × 0.95
Implied terminal growth3%
From current model assumptions
Discount rate assumption9%
Estimated from current sector rules
Adjust assumptions+
Adjust assumptions
Move assumptions to see how the current price implied conditions change.
Forecast horizon10Y
Historical implied expectations
How does today's implied growth compare with history?
Calculated from selected historical prices and current normalized FCF assumptions, not a full point-in-time backtest.
Current implied FCF CAGR30.1%
5Y monthly median25.03%
Current vs 5Y median+5.07 pts
Showing 8 of 11 report price anchors
| Report price anchor | Price date | Anchor price | Implied FCF CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4-2025 | 2025/12/31 | 146.58 USD | 30.73% |
| Q3-2025 | 2025/09/30 | 178.73 USD | 33.53% |
| Q2-2025 | 2025/06/30 | 113.41 USD | 27.15% |
| FY2025 | 2025/03/31 | 130.03 USD | 29.05% |
| Q4-2024 | 2024/12/31 | 83.38 USD | 22.94% |
| Q3-2024 | 2024/09/30 | 104.36 USD | 26.01% |
| FY2024 | 2024/04/01 | 70.62 USD | 20.7% |
| FY2025 | 2024/04/01 | 70.62 USD | 20.7% |
202630.09%
Avg 30.23% · Samples 5
202529.06%
Avg 29.28% · Samples 12
202421.77%
Avg 22.25% · Samples 12
202322.62%
Avg 23.01% · Samples 12
Historical valuation multiples
How have EV/EBITDA and P/FCF changed over the last 5 years?
Annual fiscal-period anchored: month-end prices are paired with the most recent annual fiscal period ending on or before each date, covering the last 5 years (61 monthly samples). Multiples are research references; financial-sector or otherwise non-comparable companies require sector-specific context.
P/E
Market cap divided by reported net income (annual fiscal-period snapshot).
152x
Near median · P43
Current5Y medianTypical range IQR
5Y median157x
Current152x · P43
5Y low 96xCurrent vs median-3.22%5Y high 241x
IQR 139–186x · 61 monthly samples
P/FCF
Market cap divided by reported free cash flow.
253x
Above history · P87
Current5Y medianTypical range IQR
5Y median128x
Current253x · P87
5Y low 60.92xCurrent vs median+97.85%5Y high 323x
IQR 75.17–209x · 51 monthly samples
EV/EBITDA
Enterprise value (market cap + debt − cash) divided by EBITDA.
119x
Near median · P55
Current5Y medianTypical range IQR
5Y median113x
Current119x · P55
5Y low 75.89xCurrent vs median+6.04%5Y high 267x
IQR 92.16–139x · 61 monthly samples
Month-end historical multiples
A date-friendly view for historical EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, and P/E queries.
Showing 8 of 61 month-end samples
| Month-end | Price | P/E | P/FCF | EV/EBITDA | Fiscal period used |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 140.06 USD | 152x | 253x | 119x | 2025-03-31 |
| 2026-04-30 | 131.88 USD | 143x | 239x | 112x | 2025-03-31 |
| 2026-03-31 | 125.46 USD | 136x | 227x | 107x | 2025-03-31 |
| 2026-02-27 | 144.11 USD | 156x | 261x | 123x | 2025-03-31 |
| 2026-01-30 | 169.56 USD | 184x | 307x | 144x | 2025-03-31 |
| 2025-12-31 | 146.58 USD | 159x | 265x | 125x | 2025-03-31 |
| 2025-11-28 | 157.30 USD | 170x | 285x | 134x | 2025-03-31 |
| 2025-10-31 | 170.43 USD | 185x | 308x | 145x | 2025-03-31 |
Valuation overview
How do the valuation assumptions fit together?
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) valuation on TickerVal is designed to help readers understand the operating expectations embedded in the current market price. At 140.06 USD, the page brings intrinsic value analysis, DCF outputs, reverse DCF implied growth, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, and valuation assumptions into one research view within the Consumer Cyclical sector and the Internet Retail industry. Instead of treating one model as a final answer, TickerVal compares cash-flow, earnings-power, balance-sheet, and relative-multiple lenses so the differences between models are visible. The reverse DCF view currently shows implied growth of 30.1%, while the model median reference sits at +1,219% versus the current price. The DCF and reverse DCF sections focus on free cash flow, discount rate, terminal growth, and the long-term growth path implied by the current price. EV/EBITDA and P/FCF provide additional context for capital structure and cash-flow multiples. The financial trends section connects those valuation assumptions back to reported revenue of 137B USD, free cash flow of 11B USD, margins, and balance-sheet facts from public filings. Readers can use the layout to compare assumptions across models before reviewing the underlying source data. This page is intended for transparent research reference, model review, and assumption checking.
Valuation model range vs. current price
Each row shows a model output range, with a vertical line for the current price.
DCFCalculated
12.61 USD-15.81 USD
Earnings Power ValueCalculated
6.80 USD-6.80 USD
Graham NumberCalculated · Limited reference
12.22 USD-12.22 USD
Owner EarningsCalculated
8.58 USD-11.96 USD
Current price reference line
Why do valuation models give different answers?
Different models rely on different financial facts. The status blocks show which lenses fit this page data.
| Model | Fit | Context |
|---|---|---|
| DCF | Suitable | Useful when recurring free cash flow history exists; sensitive to growth and discount assumptions. |
| Owner Earnings | Suitable | Useful when net income, D&A, and capex support owner-earnings scenarios. |
| Reverse DCF | Suitable | Shows the FCF growth implied by current price under stated assumptions. |
| Earnings Power Value | Suitable | Useful for mature operating profit, with limited emphasis on growth. |
| Graham Number | Limited | Works best when EPS and book value are both positive. |
| Dividend Discount Model | Not meaningful | Needs explicit dividend history, which is not included in the current version. |
| Net-Net Liquidation Value | Not meaningful | Requires current asset and liability detail beyond the current data set. |
| PEG | Limited | A quick growth multiple lens when EPS history is positive. |
| EV/EBITDA | Limited | Useful for capital structure context when operating profit is available. |
| P/FCF | Limited | A compact free-cash-flow multiple view for positive FCF years. |
| P/B | Limited | More useful for asset-heavy balance sheets than asset-light companies. |
| P/S | Limited | A revenue multiple lens when profit or FCF is not stable. |
| Peer Comparison | Not meaningful | Standardized peer comparisons are not included in the current version. |
Which valuation models are being calculated?
Hover each model row to inspect formulas and inputs.
Current price140.06 USD
Model median reference10.62 USD
Price vs model median+1,219%
Price date2026/05/08
8.58 USD10.62 USD11.96 USD
+1,219%
Calculated
Owner Earnings
Uses net income, D&A, and capex as an owner-earnings proxy.
8.58 USD10.62 USD11.96 USD
+1,219%
10.62 USDCurrent price is 1218.9% above the base model value.Adjusted reference: 8.86 USD
Calculated
Reverse DCF
Solves the forward FCF growth rate implied by the current price.
Implied growth30.1%
Current price implies roughly 30.1% annualized FCF growth.
30.1%Current price implies roughly 30.1% annualized FCF growth.
Calculated
Earnings Power Value
Estimates earnings power value without assuming growth.
6.80 USD6.80 USD6.80 USD
+1,960%
6.80 USDCurrent price is 1961.2% above the base model value.
Updated: 2026/05/10
Which financial trends support the assumptions?
Annual financial metrics with switchable views. · Unit: USD
FY2025 · Mar 2025 report14 records
Revenue137B USD
Net income18B USD
Free cash flow11B USD
CapEx-12B USD
Operating cash flow23B USD
Valuation basis and non-recurring items
Collapsed by default. Expand to inspect structured one-time items and adjusted figures without making them the primary page focus.
ExpandCollapse
Valuation basis and non-recurring items
Collapsed by default. Expand to inspect structured one-time items and adjusted figures without making them the primary page focus.
A positive amountAfterTax means the item increased reported net income; a negative value means it reduced reported net income. Adjusted net income = reported net income minus total after-tax impact. Valuation defaults to reported figures; adjusted figures are shown to observe one-time-item impact.
| Period | Item | Category | After-tax impact | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/03/31 | Asset impairment | Impairment | -671M USD | Medium |
| 2025/03/31 | Special income/charges | Other | -671M USD | Medium |
| 2024/03/31 | Asset impairment | Impairment | -1B USD | Medium |
| 2024/03/31 | Special income/charges | Other | -1B USD | Medium |
| 2023/03/31 | Asset impairment | Impairment | -312M USD | Medium |
| 2023/03/31 | Special income/charges | Other | -312M USD | Medium |
| 2022/03/31 | Asset impairment | Impairment | -3B USD | Medium |
| 2022/03/31 | Special income/charges | Other | -3B USD | Medium |
| 2020/03/31 | Litigation settlement | Litigation | -64M USD | Medium |
| 2025/12/31 | Asset impairment | Impairment | -1B USD | Medium |
| 2025/12/31 | Special income/charges | Other | -1B USD | Medium |
| 2024/12/31 | Asset impairment | Impairment | -668M USD | Medium |
| 2024/12/31 | Special income/charges | Other | -668M USD | Medium |
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Which reported financials feed the models?
Financial DetailsShowing latest 5 / 14
| Period | Type | Revenue | Net Income | Adjusted net income | Free Cash Flow | Diluted EPS | Adjusted EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/03/31 | Annual | 137B USD | 18B USD | 19B USD | 11B USD | 0.92 | 0.99 |
| 2024/03/31 | Annual | 130B USD | 11B USD | 13B USD | 21B USD | 0.54 | 0.65 |
| 2023/03/31 | Annual | 126B USD | 11B USD | 11B USD | 24B USD | 0.5 | 0.53 |
| 2022/03/31 | Annual | 134B USD | 10B USD | 16B USD | 14B USD | 0.45 | 0.73 |
| 2021/03/31 | Annual | 109B USD | 23B USD | - | - | 1.04 | - |
Where does this data come from?
Open to inspect field-level SEC EDGAR source, filing form, and derived notes.
SEC EDGAR
Where does this data come from?
Open to inspect field-level SEC EDGAR source, filing form, and derived notes.
Frequently asked questions
Quick notes on price-implied expectations, model differences, and source data.
What is Alibaba Group Holding Limited's intrinsic value?
Alibaba Group Holding Limited's intrinsic value on TickerVal is reviewed through DCF outputs, reverse DCF implied growth, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, valuation assumptions, and financial trends from public filings.
How is BABA valued on TickerVal?
TickerVal values BABA by comparing intrinsic value models, DCF and reverse DCF assumptions, cash-flow multiples, earnings-power references, and reported financial trends.
What does the current stock price imply?
The reverse DCF view estimates the free-cash-flow growth path implied by the current stock price under stated discount-rate and terminal-growth assumptions.
Which valuation models are used?
TickerVal uses DCF, reverse DCF, Owner Earnings, EPV, Graham Number, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, P/B, P/S, and other model references where the underlying data is available.
Is this investment advice?
No. TickerVal does not provide investment advice, ratings, price targets, or buy/sell recommendations.
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